Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making for an Unknowable Future


Who knows what tomorrow will bring? Or next week, next month or next year? Nobody can see into the future but we make our choices on the basis of what fortunes we think will befall us. How much should we pay into our pensions each month? Should we exercise? Expand the business? Enter a trade agreement? Take an expensive holiday next summer? These are universal questions. Throughout history we have developed a variety of ways of coping with the radical uncertainty that defines our lives. This incisive and eye-opening book draws in biography, history, maths, economics and philosophy to highlight the most successful – and most short-sighted – methods. Ultimately, the authors argue, the method of our age is misleading us, and giving us a false understanding of our power to make predictions, leading to many of the problems we experience today.

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King, Mervyn